A flood of awareness

Kids came for the fun, adult vols were pruning congesting vegetation 

Greetings, all. It's been too long since I last wrote, but I've been trying to avoid Catholic or Jewish guilt, though, really, why should I have to? I'm neither Catholic nor Jewish. Maybe guilt is just flat-out part of human nature.

Anyhow over the last months I've had so many thoughts and experiences I felt needed to be laid out and articulated properly for interested people to see that I just . . . felt . . . GUILTY AS HELL about not doing it. Hey, now what do I do with the "hell" part of this? Metaphysics again. See, writing is just too hard! (But the translation project is doing great guns, giving me some real focus). See, I'm still just plain doing too much stuff!

But now, with the floods, I suppose it's inevitable.

This, even though I am just recovering from a mild second bout with pneumonia. I contracted it down South in tsunami country, where I've been for the past couple of weeks immersing myself in another writing project (an eco-volunteer program, that's where these 2 pictures are from.)

Me w/Youth International Volunteers and Andaman Discoveries Staff on Koh Phrathong

The only other time I got pneumonia was three years ago, in exactly the same southern places, doing the same sorts of things. Exciting, productive, fun things, but that somehow exposed me to a tropical germ my body hasn't learned to handle right. Some freaky coincidence.

But I'm over it now, breathing freely and full of energy, and here to tell you about another naturally destructive event I'm now perfectly positioned to report on: the imminent Bangkok flooding.

I'm a latecomer to the topic, because of my trip and consequent derailment, but maybe I can give some perspective, since I've got two properties of my own on the ground here and am watching them closely. One is a townhouse towards the very furthest northeast boundary of the city, and the other is a 12th-floor condo a kilometer or two from the Chao Phraya River, which sluices and twists through the Bangkok Metropolitan Area very much as the Mississippi does for Greater New Orleans, each ending in a nearby ocean.

New Orleans had Katrina. Bangkok is about to experience the worst flooding in all of Thai history.



Brief background: If you've been following the news, you'll know the flooding has actually been going on since mid-September. The rainy season here started late, but came in with an unheard-of intensity in August, and just didn't stop coming. The tributary rivers of the northern mountains swelled to record-setting volume, first flooding the beautiful northern city of Chiangmai, and scaring the bejeezis of everyone downstream. Downstream fears became a horrible reality, as water poured from everywhere into the Chao Phraya basin and had no way to get out quickly enough, so they spread out . . . and out . . . and out, engulfing huge chunks of Central Thailand, and now is just sitting there, dribbling slowly out as even more water comes in to push from behind.
Hundreds have died, but the pace of the water gives time for plenty of warning, so the greatest loss has been to homes, belongings, crops, transport, and commerce in general.


Many major cities and towns are still in great distress. And these are all waiting for the water to drain out . . . through . . . Bangkok, of course!


Bangkok, of course, has had some history of flooding, and because of this has built around itself an elaborate system of canals, dikes, and drainage canals to divert floodwaters around the city--ironically at the same time as filling in most of the canals which more than a century ago gave rise to the moniker of "Venice of the East," turning them into impressive congestive, polluted, and poorly-maintained city streets.

This system worked pretty well at keeping the levels down, and was steadily becoming more efficient. The problem now is that there is just too much water behind the walls, and this is combining with a seasonal tide surge, highest of the year, which is predicted to come in from the opposite direction over the next four days and breach the defenses, inundating Bangkok.

The government is trying to control things somewhat by opening floodgates in certain areas first, telling everyone well beforehand when and where. It's now pretty generally accepted that some effects of the flood will reach everywhere in the city, but heroic steps are being taken to protect power supplies, and the SkyTrain and  subway transportation systems.

Right now it's dry most places, but it's also definitely here in some places, witness the "minimart" and "styrofoam" photos posted here which another former Peace Corps guy shared with me.
Anyhow today areas around both my townhouse and my condo are bone-dry.

It's late. I started late, and have been writing this thing entirely off the cuff, after being released from the hospital today. I feel fine, thank you, just a little tired. I'll continue talking about developments tomorrow, and hopefully have time to touch on some other topics as well. Be well. I wish I could talk to each of you in person . . . you're welcome to comment here, or e-mail me, for that matter . . . ! Till soon, then.

Next installment: Real or imagined?

What to do?

I’ve been running into idle musicians out on the streets these days. Going stir-crazy sitting around the house, gotta get out. A lot of them lost their jobs because the hotels had no guests, and they don’t know if or when things will go back to normal. Of course, at this point almost nobody’s working, because of the curfew. That just extended for another week, too. At least now it’s off the streets by 11, not 9, as the first few days. But the government has apparently gotten word that the peaceful demonstrators had some more firebombs planned for this week, so I can’t blame them. Yet still, what is any big city, especially Bangkok, without night life? It’s no fun to always have to be home by 11. I personally don’t need the music work to survive, but most of those guys and gals do. Some of the Filipinos have just gone back home. Some of the farang (Western) musicians are falling back on the old standby for expats here, teaching English. The Thais are suffering the worst, maybe, although they usually do have family here, at least. Many of us are thinking a lot about what went wrong. And a few are wondering if there’s anything they can do to help.

To me the big story of the last few days is how the Bangkok community came together and cleaned up the mess in that square mile the redshirts occupied for six weeks. People gave up their Sunday off and came out in swarms and started the healing process with a great big sense of community. As you can imagine, people camping on public streets, which are not designed for it, can make things pretty disgusting. Well, these folks came out in just as big numbers as the protesters, held their noses for awhile, and started taking care of business. I wasn’t there, but saw plenty of TV footage, and it looked like a love-fest. The spirit of Buddhism, the warmth and openness of the Thai culture which made me love it in the first place. There were smiles all around, people talking about the future with hope, we hadn’t seen much of that for many weeks in this place that’s been known for a long time as the “land of smiles.”

There are stories that aren’t so good, too. William Barnes of Asia Times, who is doing the best reporting I’ve seen on this (including the one on the composition of the redshirt leaders which I linked in an earlier blog) wrote one called Sifting Through Thailand’s Ashes which is well worth the read, and gets into more detail about the makeup of the redshirt movement, and where it might go from here. The Reddos haven’t given up, but they may be coming to understand that they can’t get away with making claims about being a peaceful movement any more.

So . . . what is to be done?

Well, on the post just before this one, a commenter suggested, getting rid of the leaders, or "cutting off the head of the snake." OK, point taken, I think the leaders who incited to riot and who were certainly responsible for a lot of the deaths should be jailed, for a good long time, too. And if I could add to that punishment I'd have them sit in front of loudspeakers listening to their own speeches 24/7. But there will be other leaders. You know the story of the hydra, right? And besides, they wouldn't have been able to stir up the soup if there hadn't been any soup. So I would look more in the direction of curing the root causes. What were the social conditions these poor people were in that allowed them to be whipped up into such a rage? And I'd try to correct the misinformation that's been spread around.

I’m just a dumb farang, what do I know? I don’t have a lot of successful experience in saving societies from themselves. I wish I did, though, wish I had the experience and the stature to sit in a room with PM Aphisit and give him advice which would start this place moving on the road to a harmony that would make the Buddha proud.

I don’t have that experience and stature. But if I did, I’m pretty sure I’d make one major suggestion. Mr. Aphisit, make a goodwill tour of the entire country, one without a lot of ceremony, but with a lot of substance. I don’t know if the format of a “town hall meeting” would be workable, but get as down and close to the common people as you can.
Start with the Northeast, that is the place where the problems of Thailand come to a head. Oh, and by the way, make sure you’ve got loyal bodyguards. You’re wearing a great big bulls-eye on your chest right now. But show not only that you’re not afraid, but that you welcome the chance to hear people’s opinions and tell them how you see things.
Go there with something in hand to offer them. Not another big dam, no heavy industry, but something down and personal for the rice farmers who can’t get enough for their crop, for the kids who seem to have no future. Land redistribution, microfinance, education for new careers to replace the old that are becoming obsolete. Something big, something real, something they will soon see the fruits of.
Show them that you haven’t stopped the programs Thaksin started, at least the ones that worked, but have rather improved them—they really don’t know this. Give concrete examples, get testimonials from locals.
And wear your big heart on your sleeve. All these people have been told that you represent the “elite” who has always looked down on them. I can see that’s not true, let them see it too. Mix with the crowd, get them to teach you more Lao, try it out on them. They are lovable people, and they’ll love you for reaching out even a little bit, and they’ll laugh with you at your mistakes.
Of course you’ll have set a date for the next election, I know that’s already in the works. But joke around with them about that, tell them if they don’t want all the good stuff you’ve done, they can just zap you out with the stroke of a pen. Take off your tie and get just the tiniest bit funky. Once they see you as a real person, they won’t listen to the lies. You were educated at Oxford, so what? You’re just a guy, and a good guy at that.

I don’t know what to tell you about going to the North (Thaksin country) and the South (those pesky Muslim separatists). But if you can get through the Northeast, I think the rest will be easy. Anyhow, Mr. Aphisit, if you ever had reason to listen to me, these are the things I would say.

A musician friend who happens to also be a psychologist has a great idea which he’s going to sound out some folks about: a tour of like-minded Thai star musicians, especially ones popular in the Northeast, with the theme of harmony, healing, and peace. Get the government to finance this, have free admission. Make it completely non-political, no running people, parties, movents down, but instead have the stars, and others, in between songs talk about the need for building the future together, not as Thais fighting Thais.

Oh, and Mr. Aphisit, one more item. That lèse majesté dealie, you know that good old law where they can throw ya in boiling oil for so much as comparing yourself to a royal, you might want to have the constitutional amendment committee take another look at that thing. I don't think it's helping anybody right now, maybe even especially the royals. But what do I know? I'm just a dumb farang.

OK, I can feel the drowsiness creeping over me, and over you too, so me, I’m going to bed. For you, though, most of you are in another time zone, so you should have the energy to do your assignment for today, which is to think of ways that Thailand can step back from the brink. What do you think can help solve the problems that brought this all about? Feel free to post comments below, even if you ARE Mr. Aphisit. Actually, all of you, elite, serfs, red and yellow shirts, should always feel free to do that, I’d love to see more comments. So, then, till next time! One more post on this situation, then, maybe, take a break?

On reflection . . .

These last weeks have been like nothing Thailand and/or I have ever experienced. I think they mark a drastic change in the direction the country will take, and the way the people will relate to each other for a good long time to come. It's a watershed.

I said early on that this couldn’t be simply seen as a struggle between the have-nots and the haves, the disadvantaged and the elite. That still holds, but I’d now stress the word “simply” pretty strongly: the divisions actually do exist, and they are fundamental to the problems, a key root of the struggle we've just now been living through.

What happened in the society to create these divisions was nobody in particular’s fault. Just 78 years ago Thailand was an absolute monarchy with a rigid class system, and then without much serious thought on anyone’s part it was rudely rushed into what was supposed to be democracy. Then it went through a series of cataclysms, including the Second World War, the mysterious death of a boy-king, and the Vietnam War, with coup after coup, constitution after constitution, the strongest constant in the mix being a king who was just a boy when he was crowned and is now incapacitated, almost unable to speak, and clearly near the end of his life.

You can blame a lot of factors, or blame people, or blame the influence of other countries, or socioeconomic systems, or simply “globalization” if you want, but it won’t change the fact that the blame game can be played by anyone, opposing anyone and anything else, and will really only cause more bitterness and conflict. What needs to be done is to have a look at what needs to be done, get that clear, then start doing it.

I’ve become aware of a lot more players here than I’d known of before, and have spent a lot of time looking at videos of the redshirt rallies and opinions posted on the web. I still am completely convinced that the redshirts were not only wrong to do what they did, but actually evil: they used and duped innocents to further their own ends. There’s irony here, because I remember people calling us U.C. Berkeley students “commie dupes” during the FSM (Free Speech Movement, not Flying Spaghetti Monster) in ’64, and many another time. I supported FSM because I independently came to the conclusion that it was right, I never liked communism, and I still think the FSM was right, so at least I wasn’t duped. But I do think this is quite a little different. There’s the distinct flavor of a cult among the redshirts. If you see one of their rallies, I expect you’ll see what I mean.

Before I go on, for your dancing pleasure, here is a YouTube video, very anti-redshirt, with English subtitles. It makes no pretense at being “fair and balanced,” but it sure hits the nail on the head. I spent most of yesterday looking at one video of a redshirt rally after another. This pastiche has some of the key moments in what I saw in those meanderings. Thaksin, in most of the shots here, is speaking to rallies of thousands of redshirts through the magic of cyberspace phone-ins, which have been key moments for the faithful.





Pretty damning, huh? But it didn’t include Arisman’s “shit” speech, where he told the cheering crowd how much he hated Prem Tinsulanonda (read “King of Thailand” here, as Prem is head of the King’s privy council, “I hate him worse than shit!”) and how he wanted Aphisit to be greeted with Thai protesters hurling bags of shit at his state visit to Australia, then talked about them as “biological weapons” that would be used in Bangkok during the coming protest (this last one). Not only did they throw shit, but their own blood at Aphisit’s house during the protest. These words can’t be spun to be much else than hate speech, right? And prophetic. The burning thing, clearly they had that in mind long before they went to Bangkok.

But the new thing I’ve become aware of, and am kicking myself for not having thought about more before, is how many other people besides Thaksin are involved in this. Not talking about the true believers, but the leaders.

Did you do your homework? Remember, my assignment was the Communist Conspiracy ! Go on, open it up!

OK, Thaksin is no communist. Your garden-variety protester is no communist. Not all or probably even most of the folks behind the redshirts are communists. But especially after reading that article, it does seem they are taking a lot of pages out of the Bolshevik-Stalinist-Maoist playbook. Quoting here from that article, by William Barnes (“Thai Power Grows From The Barrel of A Gun,” Asia Times Online, May 13, 2010, 13 May 2010):

Therdpoum Chaidee, a former communist and colleague of key protest leaders, says “The revolution walks on two legs. One political leg and one army leg. Violence is the essential ingredient in the mix. That is what we were taught . . . the people who are the real planners, not the people up on stage making protest speeches, these people probably keep a very low profile, but they must calculate that aggression is vital . . . Aggression paralyzes and divides opponents. This is what we were taught, this is how a smaller force can defeat overwhelming power. The message was: divide and conquer."

The five tactics they learned for unseating a government included: divide your enemies; form a united front; use provocative violence; secure the loyalty of people inside the ruling regime; and, finally, win over the army.

So, the redshirts have

1. A government with a lot of divisions within it
   
2. large groups disaffected from the current social system, gathered into one,
   
3. Thaksin providing a practically limitless source of funds for infrastructure, while supposedly nonviolent planners mapping out a strategy of violence,
   
4. allies on the inside of the government, many elected and serving in Parliament,
   
5. "Watermelon" (green on the outside, red on the inside) army soldiers and officers sympathetic to the redshirts—though there are probably more inside the National Police.
   

"The tactic is to keep saying that you are a peace-loving people. The many factions folded into the united front [UDD] organization are not told what the real strategy is because they might not agree and they might not act their part convincingly . . . "

When I read this article, the whole thing kind of went KER-CHUNK into place for me. This certainly explains the things I’ve been seeing in a way nothing else I’ve thought of has done. I think that if you’ve been reading my blogs you will likely agree.

So things aren’t so simple, after all. One cannot dismiss those videos of stadiums full of red-shirted fans screaming with anticipation and grinning with pleasure when Nutthawut goads them to burn Bangkok or Arisman tells them how the ladies should package their bowel movements in preparation for the Big Day. That is real energy. It may be fanatical, it may have once had the form of small scattered sparks, and only now have been fanned into full flame by demagogues with their own agendas, but it’s real. Lots of people believe what they’ve been told, and are fired up about it. So indeed Thai society has undergone a basic change. There have never been such clear-cut divisions as this, or an underclass so energized.

But it’s not just the converts in the underclass, that’s the point. There’s Thaksin, one of the world’s wealthiest men. Then there are his allies, many old cronies, many people who are now getting paid off. Then there are the communists, like Ji (see the debate in an earlier post . . . it’s worth seeing), who have their own visions of what the future society will be like. Then there are the people whose financial boats were raised by Thaksin during his earlier administration. Then there are people who just plain didn’t like having their democracy tossed in the 2006 coup, and never saw anything wrong with Thaksin. Some among these groups are plainly visible, but probably more are unknown to the media, the government, to us. That, and maybe more, is the redshirt movement, or, as they like to call it, not acknowledging that at this point Thailand has no dictator, “The United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship” (UDD).

A lot of these people, the leaders, the movers and shakers, who are not rice farmers, but usually well-to-do and/or well-educated, couldn’t care less if Thaksin were there—except for his money. I imagine Ji and his pals are already plotting how to get rid of the sucker once he’s funded the revolution. I suspect that Thaksin, actually not having been born yesterday, knows this and in turn has his own plans for that bunch. Anyhow, it is by and large a thoroughly disagreeable mix, seems to me, ripe for intrigues and betrayals. Great literary material, maybe I should change the theme of my book. And--get this--we really have no idea what they stand for! Everything we and the masses of redshirt followers have been told has pretty clearly been dreamed up purely to promote the group's quest for power. About as cynical as you can get. Who are these people, and what do they actually stand for? Anything at all?

But back to the real issue. Thailand has real social problems that need to be addressed, and while these may not have directly caused the recent protests, they have provided the soup that the leaders have stirred up and heated to a boil. Never mind that the points they claimed to be fighting for (Dissolve Parliament! End Corruption! Stop Killing Women and Children!) were bogus, somebody in government has to get out and chill that red soup down to a nice edible gazpacho, and that means figuring out ways of dealing with the problem.

I have my ideas about what can be done. Do you?

Next time: What can be done?

Like going to the movies

OK, this is the new blockbuster, that’s Thaksin on the right. Seh Daeng (I think) on the left, the others Reddo leaders. The Thais are passing this poster around on the internet. A loose translation of some of the poster text is below.

GARBAGE
An Alliance of Offal

Evil by nature?
Or did they become sociopaths just because of the one man, Thaksin?

Good questions. These will be presumably be answered if we just stick around and watch the movie. I expect to do just that.

Things are finally getting cleared up in Bangkok, and we’ll be back much closer to normal soon, that seems likely. How long it will last is another issue, depends on 1) whether the Reddies cook up another opportunity to hold up the stage and 2) whether the government is savvy enough to head ‘em off at the pass.

I have to say I’m impressed with Aphisit. Cool under pressure.

Here’s an indication: Take the moniker CRES, it’s short for “Center for Resolution of the Emergency Situation.” In Thai it is shortened to ศอฉ, pronoucned “saw aw chaw,” short for ศูนญ์ – อำนวยการแก้ไขสถานการณ์ - ฉุกเฉิน. The Thais who were sick of Aphisit waiting so long to move against the Reddies changed the meaning of the initials to ศูนญ์ – อภิสิทธิเ - ฉย, or “Center For Aphisit Just Sitting There.” But he just hung in and took the body blows, knew how long it was going to take even if they didn't, and in the end, hey, it got done, and done right.

One of the editorials they had us read in Intensive Thai was about how Aphisit kept asking the people to have patience, while nothing happened. The title of the paper is really untranslateable, but would be something like “The Government Does SomeNothing!” Asking for patience and repeating “trust me” isn’t enough, they were saying. The Reddies had been calling for his head forever. Then the Yellers joined in. And people from some of the little parties jumped on the bandwagon with “resign, resign!”

I was as itchy as anyone else to get those squatters out of there. It was like having a bunch of hoodlums and con artists move into your living room and saying, “there’s a problem with the deed on this house, and we’ll stay till it’s cleared up and you’re gone.”

But Aphisit was thinking. He said repeatedly that while getting the Reddies out was necessary, the most important thing was the welfare of the whole country. So he waited until they themselves were getting quite uncomfortable from sitting outside every day in the heat, and then offered them a way out, which gave them more than he wanted to give, but would have allowed them to save face . . . see my earlier post. This was statesmanship. It would have solved the local problem and allowed the differences to get sorted out in an election, and everyone could have come away feeling they’d gotten something.

He knew also that if they didn’t take it, he’d have to move. But the game was clear: they’d try to get the government to kill people, then scream bloody murder. It had already happened on April 10. So he took no chances. He made a plan and made the military rehearse it again and again.

His “roadmap” plan was received well by everyone, and for a few minutes everyone breathed a sigh of relief. The beauty of it was that if the other side turned it down, they couldn’t claim to hold the high ground any more.

So what happened? In the end, the Reddies turned it down (by attaching conditions, see earlier posts), and because there was no fresh blood, they screamed murder about April 10 once more. It’s true that the world press was, by and large, fooled by this charade, but in the end, the Thai army behaved with great discipline, the only ones hurt as far as we know were Reddie thugs and people the Reddies themselves killed. The forensic scientist/medical examiner on the case is Maw Phonthip, a flamboyant personality well known as a whistle-blower, and in my mind above reproach. You can trust what she says about the deaths, just wait for the report. If the government says something untrue, you can bet she’ll jump all over it.

Meanwhile, Aphisit was on TV often, carefully explaining his case. And CRES was on every night, showing a very human face. I was glad I understood Thai, it made all the difference. It seemed pretty obvious that the journalists of the world press weren’t watching. As Somtow pointed out, that press doesn’t speak Thai, and the government doesn’t do much PR in English.

What impressed me is that these people (CRES) came across not with the face of officialdom going through the motions of providing dry facts, but as real people. Serious and earnest, they gave detailed information about what the rules of engagement were, what had happened recently, what they were encountering, and how the other side was reacting, but they were also emotionally moved by the situation, and tried hard to reassure the Thai people that they were being and would be careful. You could see it in the deep “wai” some of them would give before and after the address, or in a little jump in the throat when they talked about bringing harmony back to the country (“which is home to us all”), anyhow it all resonated with me. I just hope most people all over the country, of all political beliefs, were watching.

The leaders had told the three thousand or so remaing “peaceful protesters” (the ones whose duty it was to sit in front of the stage and clap all day every day) that when the soldiers came they would be killed, so to take refuge in a temple (wat) near the protest site. When the soldiers finally came they had to take several hours to get in because the peaceful ones that had guns started a firefight with them. And when the troops finally made it in they found 6 corpses. Rumors flew that the Reddie guards had shot them when they’d tried to leave the compound, but let’s let Maw Phonthip do her work, we should have an idea soon. The troops sent unarmed women soldiers into the wat to reassure the people that nothing would happen to them, then escorted them out to the waiting fleet of air-conditioned busses that would take them back to their home towns.

It was especially sad to see an old lady crying, between defiant assertions, “We haven’t lost. We can’t lose. We’ll rise again.” Again, I had thoughts of cults and true believers. Well, these folks had been getting forced indoctrination, the same lies drummed in day after day after day.

So, were there heroes here? I think so. What do you think? And villains?

Oh, BTW, here’s the sequel to “Garbage.” That’s Thaksin in front, with the gun. The official title on the poster translates something like “The Brutal Lizard Face.”
It's actually worse than that, as calling a Thai guy "lizard face" is just about the worst thing you can say to him.

So since Thaksin thinks he’s such a great nonviolent, spiritual leader of the people I think I’ll offer an idea for another title/subtitle: “Gandhi II: He’s Back! And This Time, He’s MAD!” Weird Al never made the movie, right? So why not?

But seriously, folks, this has been a good five-day rant. I may take a break tomorrow, or . . . who knows? If the air is fresh, and the spirit sings . . . we shall see! I still have to tell you about the Communist Conspiracy! Required reading is what pops up when you click on the link. But for now, class dismissed. Next post, What really happened?

End of phase one . . . and a look behind the lines

Slept well last night. Pretty much bound to, as I’d worked with my quartet late the night before, gotten to bed late and up with the sun, no rest that day. Today, again up early.

Of course, these days, the TV goes on first thing. I saw that the government was finally getting serious about taking the city back. I admire Aphisit’s efforts and his seemingly endless patience with all the factions, most of them calling for his head on a platter. He didn’t want to take this last step, but in the end, it had to be done. I’ve got to hand it to him, I don’t think anyone could have done better leading this fractured government.

Then the channel ran a pastiche of scenes from the battle-scarred streets, and over it, John Lennon’s “Imagine.” I thought about what John was saying in that song, and was suddenly overcome by some deep feeling, couldn’t keep the tears back. This beautiful country, beautiful culture and people, that I’ve known and loved for 45 years now . . . fires and smoke everywhere, soldiers running through the streets, tanks and armored personnel carriers, trash strewn about, and on and on . . . .

Anyhow, it was a bizarre feeling of relief to see the APC’s demolishing those ugly, ugly barricades, the stinking tires soaked in kerosene, the punji stick pikes, the razor wire strung all through. Finally, they’re gone. some kind of finish to this, although I’m sure things will continue in one form or another. I’ll give my thoughts on that after a few others . . . .

First, the best evidence that the redshits were never serious about negotiation is the fact that this confrontation happened at all. They'd had victory in their grasp, Aphisit’s peace offer gave them all they had asked for, just deferred by a few months. All they had to do to get it was disband the protest, let Bangkok go back to normal life, and themselves go home to campaign for Thaksin’s proxy party.
This they at first accepted, saying they might pack up in a few days, but actually that’s when they started to add demands. Demands that the government admit to “murdering the people” on April 10, that Aphisit and Suthep turn themselves in to the police. “Justice must be seen through,” was their call, or the Thai equivalent.
They must have known that this was unacceptable, and making this demand doing this would result in more deaths. Name one government in the world that would let this go on indefinitely, or even nearly this long.
In fact, when the government turned them down, they said it outright: “we will fight you to the death,” a threat which rings rather hollow in the light of today’s events, when some meekly surrendered and a few ran off into hiding, but rings out loud and clear saying they knew where this was all going.

OK, I know I left you hanging last night. And I’m doing this late tonight, it might be the early hours before it’s done. I’ve had to answer over 30 e-mails, some of them pretty exhaustively. But back to my adventure inside the reddie camp last Friday.

Remember, I was on my way to deliver a take-home test at Chula U, the SkyTrain was down, I had to walk about a mile to the border of the mile-square protest zone, which—according to government proclamation—was supposed to have been closed. They were going to let people out, but no one in. I was just going to give it the old college try, literally, and get through to Chula, which was inside there, on the other side.

I’d actually heard on the TV that Chula itself was closed. That seemed logical. But I think the real reason I went anyway was that I was curious. I wanted to see if the government, after so much hesitation and so many false starts, was actually going to get serious about closing these guys down. Honestly, I thought there would be a bunch of stern-looking commandos lined up for miles, telling me to back off.

Interestingly, when I finally, in the sweltering heat, had finally tramped up to the barricade at Wireless Road and Phloenchit, not a soldier was in sight. Oh, forgot, back about a block there were some laid-back guys in helmets and camo playing cards and smoking. Maybe about 6 or 7. But none around here.

Looking at the barricade, I saw it was pretty solid, and festooned in razor wire. But on the right side there were some Thai people trickling in and out. They were ducking through a place on the very right side where the razor wire was looped wide enough to let a small person, or a big person scrunched over, pass. I saw a Farang (Westerner) walk by, take a snapshot, and move on. Another tall farang, sandy-haired, about 45, was looking at it the same way I was, wondering if it was a good idea to try to go in. There were no guards there, it seemed that if you wanted to go in you could.

I struck up a conversation with the guy. He spoke English well, but with an accent I couldn’t place. “South Africa,” he explained. Ahh!

“I was thinking about going in,” I said, “but wasn’t sure whether I wanted to or not. What were you thinking?”

“That’s the only reason I came down.”

“OK, let’s give it a go.” And I walked over to a young Thai woman who was going in, and asked “ขอโทษนะครับ เข้าได้ไหม?” She gave a big grin and said, sure, come in, we were welcome. The redshirts don’t have anything against foreigners particularly. They see us as a window to the outside world, which they want badly to impress. So we scrunched over and—though my pack caught briefly on the razor wire—passed into the forbidden zone. It was good to have a buddy along, especially as this guy looked like he could take care of himself.

What struck me first was how empty it was. Where before there had been people camped out, even cars, and food stalls and booths selling things, in this block there was absolutely nothing. No . . . the awning/tents, the kind used to shelter vendors and such from the rain, were still there, and in the middle of the block were two giant blue generators, humming away. And there were a couple of their loudspeaker trucks, parked and idle. There was no sound coming from the fixed speakers, either, the ones that normally would be pumping out political talk. I guess they figured that with no one there, they could save energy.

Dripping with sweat, we walked down to the next intersection, Soi Langsuan, where my old Cal buddy Sher Singh had lived and worked for awhile. Here was another barricade, more massive than the last, this one manned by several reddie guards. They looked like street toughs, but also had no problem letting us in. Inside here was more the way it had been the weeks before, people in tents, sprawled around on mats, some with electric fans turned on them. And the speakers were working! Once again we were treated to the ardent political speech of the leaders. We walked on down to the end of the block (Rajadamri/Rajaprasong), where the center of the protest was, the famous Rajaprasong stage. You remember, the one with the sign above that had no Thai lettering, only writ large in English, PEACEFUL PROTESTERS! NOT TERRORISTS! In the middle of what had been a bustling street, now with ghost monster buildings on either side.

Arriving at the stage area, we were eyed suspiciously by the guards at the rear, but when we made for the front, where the bulk of the people were watching the speakers, people seemed welcoming again. Looking around, I saw a big gathering, perhaps two or three thousand, of people, mostly middle-aged to old, a lot of them women, a lot seeming to be peasant-types. Many were smiling. Generally they appearing to be paying attention to the guy who was speaking on the stage.

Knowing Thai, I started translating for Lionel, my new friend from South Africa. The speech was like many I’d heard booming out on all the days I’d been there before. This was the day after the government had said the negotiations were over, so they were not making nice in the least.

“This government . . . thinks it can do anything! Brothers and sisters, they are telling you to follow the law . . .but they themselves follow no law! They think they can frighten you. But these people are lawless killers,they are not to be trusted! We will never give in to them! Never! Never!” and with each “never,” most of them clapped and shouted, almost as if on cue.

“All we are asking for is democracy. Is that too much to ask? I ask you, brothers and sisters, have we not waited long enough?” Cheers, applause. Fan waving. Noisemakers. And it went on. I was thinking, how do they do this? They have been sitting here morning to late night with this same stuff, and worse, every day for two months! And clapping hands like trained monkeys, that was it. A friend of mine had told me he’d watched a telecast of an English speaker talking on this stage, and that even though there was no way many of them could have been educated enough to understand much of what he said, every time he’d raised his voice and paused, they’d clapped and shouted.

Wanta know the image that popped into my mind? Guyana. Jim Jones. This felt like a cult revival meeting.

Quickly tiring of this, we moved on. I was translating signs for Lionel. “Here, they have signs for the different places these people come from. Here’s Kumpawapi. Here’s Baan Huai Sai. Here’s Pattaya.”

“What’s this one say?” it was not one of the professionally printed ones, it was scrawled out.

“Massage. Hundred and fifty baht an hour.” And the old woman there stood up and beckoned us in. It didn’t seem the right time and place, though.

We weren’t that far from Brown Sugar, the funky old jazz club I’d been playing at until six weeks ago. I suggested we stop by and see what shape it was in. We followed the party (for here, it seemed to be one, though a little sparse in attendance) past a tent of chattering saffron-robed monks, down to the next corner, where Lumpini Park started.

Here the atmosphere changed. We weren’t surrounded by smiling oldsters any more. Suddenly it was all young guys. Greasy hair, dirty clothes, mostly black. Some looked pretty stoned. “Yaa baa,” which means “crazy medicine,” or meth, is a big problem in Thailand, though I hadn’t ever been close to it. Anyhow, they were leaving us alone, that was good.

We turned the corner and walked the few doors down to Brown Sugar. Sad. Door chained, tables stacked up in front of the windows. Talked to one of the guys sitting around there, he was reasonably friendly. Then—I’d given up on my Chula mission—we decided to head back.

Lionel said the atmosphere reminded him of South Africa when he’d been in the army there during a border war with Namibia in ‘85 and ’86. “Makes me feel right at home,” he said.

We walked down Sarasin towards Wireless Road. In front of us was a gang of about 8 or 10 black-shirted toughs, the wild greasy hair again, walking the same direction, holding fat bamboo cudgels, which some of them pounded against their legs as they walked. A couple of them, one of them pretty big, turned around and gave us a baleful glance. They looked to be looking for a fight, but pretty sure we weren’t the ones they were after.

Turning left on Langsuan, we were heading back to where we’d come in at the second barricade. The rest of the walk out was uneventful, but I was surprised to see how empty everything was. Absolutely no one on the street but us. Trash all over. All these great restaurants just closed, closed. The silence of towering luxury condos. Back to Phloenchit, through the scrunchy razor wire, and out. A couple of blocks later, we’re in a world that looks the same as it did before, no sign of unrest or discontent.

Folks, I must have too much to say. I want to keep writing, but this is enough, if you aren’t worn out, you soon will be. So we’ll save further observations for tomorrow. The latest update from here is that our “peaceful protesters” weren’t so peaceful after all, surprise! After their leaders surrendered, they went on a looting, bombing, and burning spree for miles around. The supermarket three minutes walk from my place was bombed this afternoon and had to close early.

So you see, Rajaprasong may be cleared, even though Central World, the biggest department store in Thailand, has burned down, but the story hasn’t ended. Our dear multibillionaire friend, Mr. Thaksin, said from his luxury hotel in Paris today that “a military crackdown can spread resentment and these resentful people will become guerrillas.” Hmmm. I wonder how he knew that.

I have a lot more to say. Stay tuned, if you are interested. Tomorrow.

OK, Bangkok. Thailand. This is how I see it.

Some years ago, back in California, my friend Grace Davis said "hey, you write well, you've got things to say, get your voice out there, start blogging!" At the time I responded that I had trouble with a form of writing which requires you to read back-to-front, in other words beginning with the most recent thoughts and having to move backwards, sometimes seemingly forever, to pick up background. I did post a blog (you'll see if you scroll way down) 2 years ago, only one, about the last part of my trip when I moved to Thailand, and it's sat there forgotten ever since.

But, bloggeroos, I guess the time has come to attempt this form, because . . . you know why! It's a mess here right now, I gotta talk to someone. Added to that, I haven't seen much intelligent discussion in the world press. There's some pretty important stuff going on in Bangkok, and in Thailand generally, and most people who don't live here are getting very shallow, and often skewed, news and analysis. I'd like to show where corrections need to be made to the misinformation gushing out of here. A lot of the mass media are trying to wrap this up in tidy little packages more designed to entertain than edify, and sorry 'bout that, AP and CNN and all the rest of you cute little worlwide cuties are not going very deep.

Actually, AP, New York Times, et al., you don't have to go all that deep, just talk to more people, don't look so much at the slogans that are being tossed around, or what other people are writing, or what some year-old poll said, or talk to the "sexiest" characters in the game, but find out what ordinary people on the ground think, people like me, people like one of the 60,000 Thais who have been thrown out of work for two months. Take a trip up to the Northeast, the supposed hotbed of redshirtism, and interview some ordinary people there, peasants, shopkeepers, teachers, government workers. Don't go out looking for something supporting the fashionable point of view, or whatever opinions you may already have, just find out what people really think.

I've been up to the Northeast, most recently in December, visiting some of my many Thai friends, talking about things with them. I used to live up there, now I live in Bangkok. I speak Thai, I more or less speak Lao. I read Thai. I have been following this situation since the 2006 coup. I've read Paul Handley's book, That-Which-Must-Not-Be-Spoken here. I'm rereading it now. For the last 6 weeks I walked through the redshirt-occupied zone every Monday through Friday, on the way to and from my studies at Chulalongkorn University. I have read their posters, bought their DVDs. I have listened to the non-stop blaming and shouting from the protest stage, I understand what they're saying. So I suppose I have a right to an opinion. I'm always open to something someone else tells me, but I'm telling you, while this is a complex situation, it does not fit the picture of the downtrodden masses righteously challenging the power elite. That ain't it.

The next paragraphs are a summary I sent out to my Peace Corps Thailand Group 11 friends, the folks who shared an adventure in Thailand from 1965 to 1967, when it was a different world. They may not want to read this again, but it will give you some background on the situation. That will end my first blog. Stay tuned for the second, which will include my own on-the-ground observations. (Note--in this I also am posting some pictures I picked up on the web, I did not take these pictures myself, and hope I'm not violating copyright here, but they did seem out there and available, and I'm not using them for any commercial purpose so . . . I guess it's OK.) Anyhoo, here goes with the summary:

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My take on the protests is pretty simple. Simple, but long if I start from more or less the beginning. Here it is.

Thailand has big problems which have not been addressed seriously enough: poverty, corruption, poor education, the overweening influence of the monarchy (especially through the lèse majesté laws, which have been used time and again to shut people up), and an uneven playing field in economic and social spheres.

Thaksin Chinawat (you won't often see the last name spelled like that, but it's more accurate), the former prime minister whose name has been central to the latest protests, was a populist demagogue who also turned out to be a greedy megalomaniac. He got illegitimately ousted in a 2006 coup, but had kind of set himself up for that with his arrogance towards the king and the other capitalist elites, had run a drug war where he’d had 2500 or so people summarily executed, had mismanaged the crisis with the southern separatists with massacring masses of them, plus the fact that he was about to demote current heads of the armed forces and put his cronies in place. He played on the discontent of the poor regarding the problems above, and had done some things for the poor in the Northeast at the outset, including direct cash payouts without oversight to people in villages, which didn’t do much for them in the long term, but made them feel he was their buddy. Anyhow he is still very, very rich (much of it from ill-gotten gains), in exile (after being convicted of a number of felonies), and fuming for revenge.

The present government came into power after a new constitution had been put in place and a couple of governments run by Thaksin allies had been put in power and then ousted through court procedures, it’s a long and funny story, but in the end it was a court decision on vote buying that brought them down. This was a year and a half ago, when the “yellow shirts,” calling themselves "People's Alliance for Democracy," were foolishly occupying the airports, and the government change ended their protest, although not before the “red shirts,” or “redshits,” as I like to call them, were born as a counterforce.

Aphisit Wechachiwa (I spell it more like it sounds), an Oxford-educated, intelligent, personable, and squeaky-clean guy was heading the Democrats, and when Thaksin’s party was disbanded Newin, one of Thaksin’s big allies, defected and threw his influence behind Aphisit, which ensured that he would become PM. Thaksin's party, under a new name, still has a large bloc, maybe the largest single bloc (forgive my ignorance, but anyhow the count is close) of members in Parliament.

The redshits, calling themselves “National Alliance for Democracy Against Dictatorship," claiming the government was illegitimate, staged a violent demonstration a year ago last April during Songkhran, burning buses, I think even a fuel tanker, etc., but after the riot the rest of their demonstrations last year were peaceful. Thaksin, though, started pouring money and organizational talent into them, and they planned the demonstrations for this year very well. It is unbelievable how well. There are many millions of baht spent every day. They paid thousands of people many thousands of baht, and are continuing to do so. They are feeding them all. They have huge electric generators at the protest sites.
They have industrial-strength printing presses running for them, putting out everything from protest signs to pictures of the PM branding him murderer and traitor. They took over a couple of sections of the city, and when the government tried to push them out on April 10, they pushed back, throwing molotov cocktails, and with their own paramilitary using assault rifles and grenade lans, then screamed foul when people died, though it’s still not clear who was firing first and at whom, and many of the dead were soldiers.

After that they consolidated in one place, and took over a huge area in central Bangkok, putting about 60,000 people out of work (including me, as my Friday night gig has not been able to happen for 6 weeks). Every day from early morning to late at night there are loudspeakers booming out what is mostly hate propaganda from the redshirt stage. Their sound system is HUGE, FREAKING LOUD, and extends for a mile square, so that every hundred meters or so there is a speaker system, often with a digital projector showing what’s going on on stage.

The thousands that came from all over the country—there are maybe 6,000 left of what was for a day or two a hundred thousand—to join the protest are mostly well-intentioned true believers, and the constant bombarding of one-sided rhetoric from the stage is designed to keep them so. They have plenty of legitimate complaints, but they are all convinced that Thaksin and their leaders are pure and all that needs to happen for everything to be right with the world is for the current gov. to step down and put Thaksin back in. Great idea, huh? If the guy ever got back in he’d start settling scores, probably take cues from General Pinochet about how to use the National Stadium. Plus, if there’s corruption in government now, it’s small stuff compared to what Thaksin is capable of.

And increasingly prominent was this renegade Thai Army commander, known popularly as "Seh Daeng," who had been demoted—comedy again—to aerobics instructor because of insubordination. and there’s a lot more about him on the web. Anyhow he is DEFINITELY—why so definite? hard to say, but I am—on Thaksin’s payroll and has a force of Army Rangers, or former Rangers (commando-types) that have been serving as the military wing of the redshits. He spent the last couple of weeks strutting around and talking big, telling everyone that Thaksin is really the one in charge (as if it weren’t evident), and that the government should just give up. He constructed barricades of truck tires, razor wire, and bamboo spears, and has gasoline ready for setting fire to them if things get violent. These are very scary-looking things, I have been passing them every weekday for the last 5 weeks on my way to study at Chula. He refused to remove the one by Chula Hospital even though the redshit leaders told him to.

Anyhow, this is getting long, so cut to the chase. Seh Dang is the guy who was shot last week, made headlines around the world. And from my point of view he was asking for it, and the government had every right to nail him. His mistake was he didn’t think they had the balls to do it. Interesting thing is, no one is really sure just who did it. Government says they didn't. I haven't heard anyone calling them liars, strangely enough. I've heard rumors of all sorts, some too sensitive to post here. But he was definitely a nut case, and certainly had a lot of enemies, some even from within the redshit faction.

The government has had patience for two months, in spite of the fact that this has half-paralyzed the city. They had a peace plan which gave a ray of hope for a couple of weeks, but after the redshits at first seemed to accept it, there was even a press release from Thaksin saying the time appeared to be right, they then started laying out unacceptable conditions for ending the rally, conditions having nothing to do with elections or dissolving Parliament: apparently having an election in 6 months wasn’t good enough for them. More likely, Thaksin wasn’t getting enough of what he wanted, and wanted the chaos to continue. I believe the leaders want civilian deaths, people they can call martyrs, to whip up anger against the government, and that's why they haven't called the protest off.

Anyhow it has continued, and the government has no choice now but to sweep the streets. I just hope they can pull it off. Those barricades are still up, and they look pretty scary. And there are a lot of true believers out there. Plus those loyal to Seh Daeng who will be out for revenge. Plus any number of factions in this fractured society. And the government has not looked very competent in its previous efforts to take the city back. So who knows what will happen? Most of us just want peace and a beginning of the healing process, including the government addressing the problems more seriously than before. Please check out this article: Thailand, a Class Struggle?, which I think says rather well how Aphisit’s government has been trying to do just that, without getting much credit for it.

OK, above summary was written last week. Since then, a lot has happened. The next blog entry will give some of my first-hand impressions from visiting the protest zone, and also give some examples of where I think the mainstream press has gone wrong. Till later, Ciao ciao bambinos and bambinas. Gotta get out of here and play some jazz.
Till later, I remain your obedient servant,
Turk Montana